August 02, 2004
Kerry's Bounce - NOT!
I hit this article via Neal Boortz's Nuze.
USATODAY.com - Poll: No boost for Kerry after convention:
"In a race this tight, the polls are going to be all over the place," said Stephanie Cutter, Kerry's communications director. "Most importantly, voters now clearly trust John Kerry more than Bush to lead and defend America."
Now, is it just me, or does the above quote not make any sense? "In a race this tight, the polls are going to be all over the place." Does your bullshit meter go off? I am not a pollster, but I think (wouldn't you?) that a tight race would imply tight polling results? In other words, a statistical tie in poll after poll? "Most importantly, voters now clearly trust John Kerry more than Bush to lead and defend America." The Democrats exit their convention with the worst poll bounce since McGovern in 1972 (cited in the same article as these quotes), and Ms. Cutter sees (and implies that we all see) "voters now clearly trust John Kerry more than Bush"? Wow.
Analysts said the lack of a bounce may reflect the intensely polarized contest. Nearly nine of 10 voters say their minds are made up and won't change. "The convention, typically a kicking-off point for a party, is now merely a reaffirmation" of where voters stand, said David Moore, senior editor of the Gallup Poll.
What is David Moore saying? Is he giving us an historical lesson on how political conventions (and how to interpret them) have permanently changed back in 2004 from the 20/20 hindsight perch of - 2004? "It's OK! No bounce is a good thing! Yes sir, that thar is a re-aff-er-maish-un! Been that way ever since the Dem convention of '04!"
I do have one prediction: watch out, not for the undecided vote, but for the Kerry decided vote. It is my firm belief that a committed Bush voter is smarter, is more economically savvy, and is much less of a self- or America-loather. In other words, a Bush voter is voting his or her convictions and is not prone to defecting to the undecided or Kerry voting ranks. A disturbingly large swath of the Kerry decided voters are, I'm afraid, voting not their convictions but their emotions: hatred of Bush. As Bush creeps ahead in the polls, especially after the Republican convention, watch for the Dem phalanx of voters to start showing signs of defection. Watch as the least-committed fringe of Kerry decided voters actually take some time to educate themselves on the issues.
People with good sense (surprisingly, a lot of "book smart" folks lack good sense) do not generally like to hold a stance which is cognitively dissonant to their world view. I believe that many Kerry voters have not yet taken the time to understand how the Republicans and Democrats differ on the issues. And some will take that time because they believe, rightly so, that they should cast an informed vote. And some will change their minds as they try, and fail, to reconcile the illogic being spewed by the Democratic ticket.
It will be a Republican landslide.