October 28, 2004
Why George Bush Will Win
George Bush will win the 2004 presidential election. Here's why: the political marketplace of ideas has grown dramatically more efficient in the last four years, and this fact will translate directly into votes for Bush.
You might call me a pan-freemarketer. I am a small-l libertarian and I believe not only in financial free markets, but ideological free markets as well. In an ideal world, legislative bodies would take great pause in erecting laws which inhibit market behavior. In my opinion the litmus test for whether a law is good is whether it increases marketplace efficiency. An example of this would be traffic laws. An anarchist (and even some nutty Libertarians) would argue that traffic laws inhibit their ability to drive the way they wish. I argue that the presence of traffic laws allows me greater efficiency and safety in my creative pursuits. In other words, I am more productive as an individual precisely because of the presence of traffic laws. While not all traffic laws add utility (eg, the federal 55 mph speed limit), the vast collection of traffic laws are quite sensible and beneficial to society.
In the marketplace of political ideas, while it can be strongly argued that there are no legal impediments to espousing and marketing any political position, there have been strong mechanistic obstacles in this marketplace which have resulted in inefficiencies. The allocation of broadcast spectra due to scarcity, and the consolidation of media companies in the past several decades are but two. Even as a libertarian, I argue that the original mandate of the FCC (strictly to allocate broadcast frequencies, but not to monitor and censure content) was not unreasonable. Traffic laws for the airwaves as it were. Again, as a libertarian, I am quite loathe to see government intervene in order to "solve" the perceived ills of media consolidation. I do believe quite strongly that this consolidation has brought a decrease both in the range and mobility of political ideas. In addition, I believe that this is not a generic decrease in efficiency: I take the stand that Democratic, liberal, collectivist (politics based on group identity) ideals have enjoyed increased marketshare beyond what an efficient marketplace would allow, and that Republican, conservative, individualistic ideals likewise have suffered decreased marketshare beyond what an efficient marketplace would allow. I will provide data later in this essay to bolster this conclusion; for now those who may want to explore this possibility, start at the Media Research Center and go from there.
The beauty of the marketplace is that, barring legislative obstacles, it will eventually correct towards increased efficiency. Witness the rise of the blog. There should be no doubt in anyone's mind that blogs (especially political blogs) have exploded in popularity in the last several years. The $64,000 question is: would this explosion of popularity have happened if the political marketplace of ideas was already near 100% efficiency? Most likely not.
One of the rules of the free market is that there are not insurmountable obstacles of entry. While it may take a capitalization of several million dollars, anyone can enter the retail automobile marketplace. However, having successfully entered a market in no way guarantees any level of ascendance or success. A newly-minted automobile dealer may suffer years of "paying dues" when faced with the competition from established dealers who have long client lists, established business-to-business relationships, and name recognition.
Likewise, I am quite convinced that a new entrant into the political marketplace of ideas would have to struggle just like our tyro auto dealer if in fact the marketplace was humming at near efficiency. Why would anyone reinvest their "attention capital" in a new outlet if the current marketplace satisfied their needs? The meteoric rise of political blogs indicates a strongly inefficient market. This strongly inefficient market has been in place for decades. It is only with the advent of the blog that the costs of market entry have been reduced to the point that virtually anyone can enter the Agora and be heard. As it should be, not everyone will rise to the top, only the best.
To bolster my two premises that the political marketplace of ideas is left-heavy and right-light, and that the most popular blogs are political in nature, let's turn to supporting data. The Truth Laid Bear blog conducts an impartial and free ranking system of blogs that wish to participate. As of October 27, 2004, here are the top twenty. I have notated in parentheses those that I judge left-leaning (L), those that I judge right-leaning (R), and those that I judge apolitical (A):
1.Instapundit.com (R)
2.Talking Points Memo: by Joshua Micah Marshall (L)
3.Daily Kos :: Political Analysis and other daily rants (L)
4.DRUDGE REPORT 2004® (R)
5.lgf: there is no hell. there is only France. (R)
6.Eschaton (L)
7.Power Line (R)
8.www.AndrewSullivan.com - Daily Dish (L)
9.The Volokh Conspiracy - (R)
10.Blogs For Bush (R)
11.Boing Boing: A Directory of Wonderful Things (L)
12.Wizbang (R)
13.The Washington Monthly (R)
14.The Command Post - A Newsblog Collective (R)
15.Captain's Quarters (R)
16.Michelle Malkin (R)
17.LILEKS (James) The Bleat (R)
18.NRO's The Corner (R)
19.Slashdot: News for nerds, stuff that matters (A)
20.Tim Blair (R)
[Inline update at 5:45pm 10/28/2004: Glenn Reynolds of Instapundit often chuckles when someone labels him "conservative". My use of the term "right" is not meant so much to imply conservativism as it is to imply libertarianism. Inline update at 1pm 11/1/2004: Not satisfied with "libertarianism" either. The R's are generally conservatives and libertarians who are all leaning towards Bush. This categorization problem arises mainly because there is not a fiscally conservative/socially liberal party.] There are 5 left-leaning blogs, 14 right-leaning blogs, and one apolitical blog (of the 19 "political" blogs most discuss non-political issues as well). To me this indicates a strong correction in the political marketplace of ideas because if the market was efficient, there would neither be so many political blogs nor so many more right-leaning than left-leaning blogs. As an aside, three of the blogs, James Lileks, Captain's Quarter's, and the pervs at Powerline (c'mon: Big Trunk? Hindrocket!?), all hail from Minnesota (folks, if you want to tip The Land of 10,000 Opinions into Red State territory, go here right now).
It is arguable that the Democrats are better election run-up closers. Neal Boortz thinks so. Historically, he may be right. But this ain't 2000. It is true that the Democratic playbook still contains all the canards, er, plays, of Social Security cuts, voter disenfranchisement, and racial and religious pandering, each perhaps meeting with some success. Unfortunately, their water boy (aka the Mainstream Media) has been lacing their Gatorade with cyanide instead of steroids (dang! the light bulb in the locker room's pharmacy closet must be burned out again!). Take but two examples: CBS memogate, and the most current, the 380 tons of explosives gone missing in Iraq. What are we to think of the man who continues to smoke cigars when the all the previous ones blew up in his face? Even Pavlov's dogs would quit smoking.
Let's wrap this up. Look above again at the top twenty blogs. Right-leaning traffic dominates left-leaning traffic by a nearly 3 to 1 margin. Viewing voting as the currency of the political marketplace of ideas, which shop do you think voters will spend their "money"? George's Cowboy Hat Emporium (free drawl with every purchase!), or John's Brie Chalet (of course, ma'am, the samples of Brie are free, but the table waters are five cents extra)? My advice: you better think twice about betting against an efficient market breaking 3 to 1 in one direction. Unless of course you're a U.S. Senator.
Update 1pm 11/1/2004: Trackbacking to Les Jones' election prediction roundup. While I don't have an electoral map breakout, my prediction is for Bush to win in a landslide.
Update 1pm 11/1/2004: Trackbacking to Wizbang.
Posted by nopundit at October 28, 2004 11:27 AM