N.O. Pundit

Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

Real Clear Politics on November 6, 2004:

Terry Eastland's article in the Weekly Standard entitled "The Moral Majority":

TUESDAY'S EXIT POLLS showed that voters identified "moral values" ahead of jobs and the economy--and even terrorism--as the matter most on their minds. Some 80 percent of those most concerned about values voted for George W. Bush. Obviously, "value voters" helped President Bush win a second term. Bush had a lot to do with that, of course, in the positions he took and the rhetoric he used. But so did John Kerry.

Eleanor Clift's article in Newsweek entitled "Nader Was Right":

Kerry’s advisers told themselves that with war, terrorism and an uncertain economy dominating the news, the cultural issues would fade. But when the exit polls were analyzed, 78 percent of those who voted for Bush cited moral values as a top concern. Democrats knew for months that amendments to ban gay marriage would be on state ballots, yet they did nothing to create a counterweight. David Bositis at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a Washington think tank, observed that the U.S. Supreme Court gave George W. Bush the presidency in 2000, while the Massachusetts Supreme Court handed it to him in this election.

Never mind that Eleanor Clift's figure is 78%. I'm willing to believe that she was citing exit poll data that was not yet completely compiled. CNN has the exit poll on its site (below is the relevant screen-capture):

There is an 80% figure in the 2004 Bush column which corresponds to the row "Moral Values" (which does in fact have the highest percentage at 22% under the "Most Important Issue" column heading). Again, Terry Eastland: "Some 80 percent of those most concerned about values voted for George W. Bush"; and Eleanor Clift: "[assume she said 80] percent of those who voted for Bush cited moral values as a top concern".

Are Terry Eastland and Eleanor Clift saying the same thing semantically? Not in the least. Look again at the exit poll data above. The 80% is not 80% of all Bush voters, it is 80% of the 22% of all voters whose most important issue is "Moral Values". This translates into only 17.6% (80% of 22%) of actual Bush voters. Interestingly, 19% of all voters rated "Terrorism" as the most important issue, of which 86% voted for Bush. This translates into 16.34% (86% of 19%) of actual Bush voters, nearly as many Bush voters whose most important issue is "Moral Values".

The Lie: Terry Eastland is strictly correct: "Some 80 percent of those most concerned about values voted for George W. Bush". I tend to believe that Terry Eastland understood the exit poll properly, however, he entitled his piece "The Moral Majority" and plunked a pig down on the sofa (the not-untrue-in-his-context 80% figure rather than the much more accurate 17.6% figure). As one traverses his article, what conclusions might one draw as to this seeming superbloc of moral majoritarians?

The Damn Lie: Eleanor Clift is flat-out wrong. 80% (or 78%) of Bush voters did not walk into the polling place with "Moral Values" as their most important issue. Not even close. The truly reprehensible next step she took though is to translate "Moral Values" into the intolerance of red state bible-thumping fag-bashers. Go read the article! "Gay marriage" appears in the very next sentence. One of my moral values is, if you are going to cite statistics, cite them accurately!

Statistics: Actually, statistics are cool.

Posted by nopundit at November 6, 2004 02:53 PM